Prediction

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See here for the Barbarian meditation.

General information

Predictions

A prediction simply applies a bonus or penalty to any skill. They are capped at 20% of the base skill. Durations range from a few minutes to upwards of two hours.

A person can be under the influence of an unlimited number of predictions, but only one prediction per skill. Multiple predictions on the same skill will average out into one prediction (meaning small positive predictions can be useful to blunt a large negative prediction). They also do not stack with spells or other sources of buffs. E.g. if you have both a self cast Seer's Sense and a positive evasion prediction then only the greater of the two buffs will apply while both effects remain active. If the greater one were to expire first, then the lesser one would apply at that point.

In all forms of divination the messages received accurately reflect the actual result.

Predictions have four aspects: power, duration, affected skill, and polarity (i.e. bonus or penalty) all of which are determined randomly, although this is greatly influenced by your Astrology skill, Wisdom, Charisma, method of prediction used, and how much prophetic insight you have accumulated.[1] A penalty is most commonly referred to by the colloquial term 'curse,' especially when in game.

Attributes

The following is a summary of attributes that play a role in prediction. More detailed explanations can be found in the appropriate sections below.

  • Astrology skill - Aids in OBSERVE and ALIGN checks, and modifies power, duration, and accuracy of all predictions, vision predictions in particular.
  • Scholarship skill - Aids in OBSERVE checks.
  • Perception skill - Aids in OBSERVE checks.
  • Wisdom - Modifies power, duration, and accuracy of all predictions.
  • Charisma - Modifies tool bonding chance, and modifies power, duration, and accuracy of vision predictions.
  • prediction pool size - Primary determinant of power, duration, and accuracy of all predictions, and modifies tool bonding chance.
  • prediction tool quality - Primary determinant of tool bonding chance, and modifies power, duration, and accuracy of tool predictions.

Observations

The first step in making any prediction is to successfully OBSERVE a celestial body. Information on specific bodies, such as the skillsets they teach and the circle they are learned at can be found here on the Star chart.

The timer on observations is random from 2-4 minutes. An observation that would add insight to otherwise filled pools will message as such and not start the observation timer.

  • Based on scholarship, perception, and astrology.
  • Attempts to observe the Sun or any of the moons will always teach at least some regardless of cloud cover.
  • Made easier through use of Clear Vision, Aura Sight and a Telescope.
  • Piercing Gaze and Telescopes will help reduce cloud cover.
  • While not all celestial bodies teach the same amount from an observation, the values are fairly close meaning bodies that touch multiple areas are almost always preferable.
  • Not all observations are equal as a result of cloud cover and skill, but they're fairly close so if you can successfully observe it's not worth obsessing over squeezing out every last drop of bonus.
  • Some objects require a telescope to observe.
  • The best telescopes are stationary in guildhalls, Kssarh's telescope one west of his location is the best in Elanthia.
  • In game Star charts include a list of what areas each object teaches and the circles they are learned at. Note: these are riddled with misinformation currently, so it is best to use online versions.
  • To help resolve parser issues try ELANTHIAN SUN and OBSERVE <OBJECT> IN SKY. Also destroy all sunstones and moonstones in the most sadistic method available.

Prediction pools

While a prediction can be performed from a single observation, each further observation will fill your pool further, the level of which can be checked with PREDICT STATE ALL|SKILLSET. The amount of insight in your prediction pool is by far the largest influence on the power and duration of any given prediction. More insight will also increase the likelihood of the prediction matching your desired skill as well as polarity, and increases the chance that a polarity inversion is prevented if it does occur. It will also improve the chance that a prediction tool will increase its bond with you.

  • Skillset prediction pools do not decay over time.
  • Luckstone enchantments can completely fill a prediction pool without needing an observation.
  • Read the Ripples eliminates the timer between observations for randomly selected constellations allowing prediction pools to be filled faster.
  • Tezirah's Veil can also be used to fill prediction pools randomly, although this comes at the cost of stuns, severe nerve damage, and Teleologic corruption which reduces the effectiveness of your predictions.
 % Understanding Min Power Max Power Min Duration Max Duration
0 No -- -- -- --
1-11 Feeble -- -- -- --
12-22 Weak -- -- -- --
23-33 Fledgling -- -- -- --
34-44 Modest -- -- -- --
45-55 Decent -- -- -- --
56-66 Significant -- -- -- --
67-77 Potent -- -- -- --
78-88 Insightful -- -- -- --
89-99 Powerful -- -- -- --
100 Complete -- -- -- --

Scale is assumed to be linear - only the first and last points are certain and there is no reasonable way to discover a non-linearity.

Align

In order to make use of a prediction pool you have to ALIGN to it first.

  • ALIGN <OFFENSE|DEFENSE|MAGIC|SURVIVAL|LORE> will align you to the chosen prediction pool and your next prediction will be of a random skill within that skillset.
  • Alternately, ALIGN <SKILL> will align you to the chosen skill and your next prediction will be of a random skill within that skill's skillset, but weighted to the chosen skill.
  • Predictions default to trying for a bonus. If you want to try for a curse use ALIGN <SKILLSET|SKILL> CURSE instead.
  • A prediction that results in the opposite polarity to what you tried to achieve is known as a polarity inversion.
  • The most that the chance of a polarity inversion can be reduced to is 10% regardless of skill, tool bond, stats, or other factors.[2]
  • With high skill it is possible to use ALIGN SPLIT to only use 50% of aligned prediction pool on the next prediction. This appears to be 50% of the full pool size rather than 50% of whatever your current pool is at, so if your pool is less than 50% full then splitting will have no functional effect. E.g. if your pool is 70% full, then ALIGN SPLIT will leave you with it 20% full after the next prediction. Using split at this point will not be useful since the final 20% will be used up regardless.
  • With even higher skill it is possible to use ALIGN TRANSMOGRIFY to convert one prediction pool into another. The conversion results in some loss of pool size.
  • It is not possible to ALIGN to the Thanatology skill and it will never be the result of a prediction even if predicting on a Necromancer while ALIGNed to the Survival skillset. Attempting to ALIGN to it causes an effect similar to moderate levels of Divine Outrage.

Prediction methods

Visions

  • The most basic way to perform a skill modifying prediction, and the only option without use of a tool, is to simply PREDICT FUTURE after using ALIGN to align to a skill or skillset.
  • The advantage of this method is it doesn't require any tools and uses your Astrology skill and Charisma to modify the strength of your prediction rather than the stats of a tool.
  • The disadvantage of this method is that the best tools will outperform even a highly skilled vision and it has the potential for a major curse and all of your prediction pools emptying.
  • See Visions for full mechanics.
  • A very good source of astrology experience, also teaches some scholarship and perception.

Tools

In place of Visions divination tools may be used. Like with visions, the tool is used after ALIGNing to a skill or skillset. See the tool's page for syntax.

All tools share some important traits. All must be INVOKEd to bond to the seer before the first use, all can be INVOKEd a second time to clear the bond (which will reset bond qualities but not physical qualities) and all may be ANALYZEd to evaluate their quality.

The advantage to using a tool is that they can outperform a vision if your tool is bonded well. The disadvantage is that bonding takes a long time, so it will be a while before a tool will reach a state where it will outperform a vision.

Using a tool that your sect has an affinity with provides a small benefit to potency and possibly duration compared to tools you don't have an affinity with. You may use any updated divination tool; no matter your sect. Sectless are treated as not having an affinity with any tool.

Qualities

All tools have eleven qualities which can be viewed when you ANALYZE them. These can be split into four physical qualities, four bond qualities, one construction quality, and two age qualities.

Physical qualities

These vary from tool to tool, either set by a merchant or determined at the time of crafting, and affect the frequency of their respective bond quality increasing: power, duration, skill alignment, and polarity. The more damaged a physical quality the less likely its respective bond quality will increase. Tools will never break even once reaching their most damaged state. These qualities have a chance to be damaged with each use. These are measured differently for each tool type, so refer to each tool type's page for specific messages.

Bond qualities

These always start at the lowest level and each affects one of the following:

  • the power of a prediction
  • the duration of a prediction
  • the chance of hitting your aligned skill
  • the chance of both matching your desired polarity and preventing inversions if they do occur.

Bond qualities cannot be seen unless you have aligned your prophetic talent with the tool via INVOKE. These may increase, or very rarely, decrease with each use. Each quality has 31 levels ranging from 0 to 30. These are messaged differently for each tool type, so refer to each tool type's page for specific messages.

Construction quality

This varies from tool to tool, either set by a merchant or determined at the time of crafting, and never changes. It determines how susceptible the physical qualities are to damage. This messaging doesn't differ between tool types.

  • The overall craftsmanship is masterful and the <tool> should prove nearly impervious to damage.
  • The overall craftsmanship is spectacular and the <tool> should prove extremely resistant to damage.
  • The overall craftsmanship is very good and the <tool> should prove resistant to damage.
  • The overall craftsmanship is above average and the <tool> should prove slightly resistant to damage.
  • The overall craftsmanship is average.
  • The overall craftsmanship is below average and the <tool> should prove slightly susceptible to damage.
  • The overall craftsmanship is poor and the <tool> should prove rather susceptible to damage.
  • The overall craftsmanship is criminally poor, and the <tool> should likely be destroyed on principle. Possibly the creator as well or defenestrated at the very least.
Age qualities

These measure how old a tool is and how many times it has been used. Tools no longer break regardless of age or number of uses, therefore the following analysis messages are cosmetic only:

Age:

  • The <tool> is brand new.
  • The <tool> is rather new.
  • The <tool> is somewhat new.
  • The <tool> is at least a year old.
  • The <tool> is at least a couple of years old.
  • The <tool> is quite a few years old.
  • The <tool> is over a decade old.
  • The <tool> is an antique.
  • The <tool> is something you'd expect to find on an archeological dig.
  • The <tool> is archaic.

Uses:

Total Predictions Usage Messaging
0 They appear to have never seen use.
1-9 They appear to have seen barely any use.
10-24 They appear to have seen little use.
25-49 They appear to have seen some use.
50-99 They appear to have seen use.
100-249 They appear to have seen plenty of use.
250-499 They appear to have seen heavy use.
500-999 They appear to have seen great use.
1000+ They appear to have seen extensive use.

Bonding

With each use, a tool may increase a bond quality with the chance based on the current level of its respective physical quality. Also with each use, a tool may decrease a physical quality with the chance based on how well constructed the tool is. Each bonding event has the same magnitude, increasing the bond level by one, so there is no variability in bond increases. Tools will never break, regardless of how low the physical qualities reach. This will eventually result in a sort of equilibrium state where the physical qualities are so low that the chance for the bond levels to increase is so small as to be almost none.

In addition to the physical quality, the chance of bonding increasing is primarily influenced by using fuller prediction pools to predict with and by having higher Charisma.[3] The Destiny Cipher spell will also double the chance while it is in effect. There is also a bonus to the chance of bonding early in a tool's life, to kick start it.

The most dramatic change in a tool will come from critical successes and fumbles which have the potential to influence all physical and bond traits at once, although not every quality will always be affected. The one exception to this is that individual bond qualities become immune to critical fumbles once capped in order to prevent the best tools from eventually decaying to nothing in the long term.[4]

Due to the way the math works out this usually results in bond qualities increasing to an equilibrium level that is primarily influenced by the construction stat, but also affected by the starting physical qualities as well as your charisma and how often you use full prediction pools. While it is technically possible to cap an averagely constructed tool, it would take a lot of time and extreme amounts of luck. The better the construction of the tool the much more likely it is to be able to cap it. The single most effective thing you can do to increase your chances of this is to always use a full prediction pool while under the effects of Destiny Cipher when predicting.

Tools may be reINVOKEd in order to erase your bond with them, but this will also reset their bond qualities back to the lowest point.

Prediction results

Prediction interpretation

Each type of prediction method has different messaging to indicate the results of your prediction. Refer to the appropriate divination tool's page, or Visions if you didn't use a tool, for detailed interpretation messaging.

EXP mods

  • The most basic way to see your prediction result is by using EXP MODS.
  • This will tell you the skill and polarity of your prediction, but does not indicate the potency or duration.
  • There is no roundtime involved so this is a quick way to tell at a glance without needing to decipher a prediction or analyze result.

Predict analyze

  • Attempts to view the active predictions on the target by using PREDICT ANALYZE {ON <TARGET>} . Contests Astrology and Power Perception vs target's circle, and the strength and number of predictions.
  • Aura Sight is useful in this skill since it boosts the relevant skills.
  • Roundtime generally increased with the number of predictions, but fairly random.
  • Inaccuracy only exists without power/duration readings and will decrease with skill but almost always remain to some degree. This can actually be useful through multiple uses to get a general sense of where the prediction lies within the range.
  • Detects boosts from a Celestial Jewelry enchantment as if they were a prediction.
  • A moderate source of astrology experience and a minor source of power perception experience. Will only teach if at least one prediction is active, and experience is constant beyond that. The timer is about 100 seconds.
You immediately will your consciousness deep into the flows of fate. A few images materialize before your mind's eye and you pick out the following:
A translucent aquamarine spellbook that resolves into a ball of flame. It pops out of existence the moment you notice it. An Elothean man stands immediately before you. Something about him seems strangely familiar.

Skill

Based on the effective skill, not the level of success. Controls the room message.

First and third person messaging

Third person messaging is only visible if done from the open. If done from stealth then it will not be seen.

First Person Third Person
Your masterful awareness brings the webs of fate to life as a dynamic overlay on reality. (no message)
You immediately will your consciousness deep into the flows of fate. Mage becomes very still, eyes unfocused.
The world around you fades from sight as you turn your gaze inward. Mage becomes very still, eyes unfocused.
You close your eyes, mentally seeking the threads of fate. Mage closes her eyes and grows still.
You close your eyes, struggling to catch a glimpse of foresight. Mage closes his eyes and grows still.
Second person messaging

If you are the target of the analyze then you will see additional messaging about that attempt based on stealth checks.

  • If the attempt is done in the open and it messages a third person message then, in addition to the normal third person messaging above, you will see, "<He/She> silently turns to face you."
  • If the attempt is done in the open but it does not produce a third person message, or it is done from stealth and they fail the check then you will see, "You catch <Player> silently watching you."
  • If the attempt is done from stealth and they partially succeed the check then you will see, "You are struck with an uneasy sense that someone is watching you."
  • If the attempt is done from stealth and they completely succeed the check then you will see nothing.

Number

Based on the number of active predictions (max of 10 viewable), not level of success.

A few images materialize before your mind's eye and you pick out the following:
A handful of images flutter in and out of view and you pick out the following:
Many images flash rapidly before your mind's eye and you are able to identify the following:
A swarm of images flood your mind's eye, but you manage to pick out the following:
Waves of sensory information bombard your inner sight and you struggle to remain focused! You manage to pick out the following images:

Power

Indicates the power of the prediction as a percentage of the base skill. Requires first level of success. The scale is assumed to be linear and the values listed are only a guesstimate based on that assumption.

Substantiality Bonus
Translucent 1-3%
Flickering 4-6%
Quivering 7-9%
Solid 10-12%
Undulating 13-15%
Vivid 16-18%
Luminous 19-20%

Polarity

Indicates the polarity of the prediction. Requires first level of success.

  • Good: Aquamarine, Azure, Cerulean, Sapphire, Sky blue.
  • Neutral (Failed check): Grey, Pale, White
  • Bad: Crimson, Fiery, Molten, Ruby, Scarlet

Object

Indicates the skillset of the prediction. Requires first level of success.

  • Moonblade: Offense
  • Shield: Defense
  • Spellbook: Magic
  • Tome: Lore
  • Tree: Survival
  • Amorphous blob/force/shape: Failed check

Duration

Indicates the remaining length of the prediction. Requires first level of success.

Duration Minutes
It pops out of existence the moment you notice it <15
It seems to vanish almost immediately <30
It quickly dissipates <45
It shimmers and fades from view <60
It disperses slowly <75
It hangs in the air a moment before fading from sight <90
It lingers in your mind long after the form has finally scattered. >90

Skill

Indicates the exact skill of the prediction. Requires second level of success.

  • See Divination Bones for a full list of messages. Most are the same if not very similar. Only a few are different.

Source

Indicates the source of the prediction.

  • Third level of success will indicate the race:
An Elven woman stands in the background, watching.
  • Fourth level of success will grant the name (strangely familiar indicates your own prediction):
An Elven woman stands immediately before you. You recognize the figure as Caelumia.
  • This can also indicate the source as a Celestial Jewelry enchantment, and it's relative power:
A pair of stars glimmer overhead.
A small constellation shines overhead.
A brilliant array of stars gleams overhead.
  • This can also indicate the source as being Sorcerous in nature:
For some reason, the display leaves a deep sense of unease lingering in the back of your mind.

Other prediction types

Events

  • Syntax: PREDICT EVENT {OPTIONAL TARGET}
  • Requires 10th circle. Learned by having an event predicted on you by another Moon Mage with this ability.
  • Requires at least a single observation in the event prediction pool.
  • Filling the event prediction pool is done by using STUDY SKY.
  • The event pool fills drastically faster at night and with more skill.
  • You can check how full your event prediction pool is by using PREDICT STATE EVENT
  • Unlike the skillset prediction pools, the event prediction pools decays over time eventually reaching zero if left unused.
  • The chance of a successful prediction is related to how full the pool is, but since there is no round time for a failed attempt the command can be spammed until a prediction is successful.
  • Predicting an event on another player will display the vision to both them and yourself.
  • Predicting on other guilds will sometimes result in visions related to their guilds that would otherwise be unavailable.
  • Occasionally, Moon Mages will get a message indicating something has shifted in the heavens. This is an indication that a time sensitive event prediction is available.
  • This is no longer a good source of Astrology experience, although it does provide a trickle.
  • A list of Event visions can be found here.

You focus inwardly searching for insight into your future.
As your vision clears you see an Elf lecturing a group of students, gesticulating wildly at a variety of star charts and divination tools. A cracked and bloodied sandstone bowl lies next to an unconscious and bleeding student. A fierce growl comes from the east, followed by the sound of breaking glass and a muffled cry.

Weather

  • Syntax: PREDICT WEATHER
  • Can be used both outside and indoors, although the skill check is harder while indoors.
  • With sufficent skill the mage will be able to predict further into the future and with an increasing degree of certainty. Each line represents roughly 10 minutes into the future.
You gaze at the heavens, taking careful note of the current weather. You sense the weather will progress as follows:
You predict that light rains are on the way.
After that, light rains are on the way.
After that, light rains are on the way.
After that, the sky will be overcast.
After that, the sky will be overcast.
After that, the skies will be mostly cloudy.
After that, the skies will be mostly cloudy.
After that, the skies will be partly cloudy.
After that, the skies will be mostly cloudy.
After that, the sky will be overcast.
Roundtime: 5 seconds.
  • Can be performed in the Astral Plane to get a general idea of how the microcosm is changing.
You sense that the streams of Grazhir's mana flow steadily and are suffering from minor disruptions.
You believe conditions are currently growing worse.
Roundtime: 10 sec.
  • Teaches a small amount of astrology, useful at low levels of skill.

Other notes

Grandfather

  • Syntax is Predict Grandfather Confirm.
  • Sets your Astrology skill to circle*2 (this is less then the circle requirement generally and does not produce TDPs).
  • Only relevant if your Moon Mage predates the Astrology skill
  • Does not exist in The Fallen.

Thanatology

When a Moon Mage ALIGNs to the Thanatology skill, they receive the following vision:

Pain! A concept erupts from the back of your mind, cold and crushing. For a few, sharp moments you experience The End -- the death of stars and the deconstruction of fate as a metaphysical force.
The death of the universe orbits... something. Some force or some entity. Something you cannot see; that you have an unconscious need not to.
It sees you.

This also taints the Moon Mage with Necromantic taint, similar to what a Necromancer experiences during the middle stages of Divine Outrage.

If it instead aligns to the empathy skill please make a BUG report, as this is a reoccuring issue that needs to be remedied.

Lore

Mozzik's Four Axioms of Fate

  1. All things are subject to Fate.
    • This includes the Immortals. One may question if Fate predates the Immortals or if it is their creation and yet they have become bound to it through some mechanism. However the question is irrelevant because the answer is unknowable by mortal minds and the consequences the same in either case.
  2. Free will exists.
  3. Fate is the force that causes actions.
    • Fate dictates what actions will be taken and when. Fate has no involvement in creation or destruction, beyond dictating when and where they must happen.
  4. Fate exists on the Plane of Probability alone despite the fact that its influence extends well beyond that plane.

Mozzik's full lecture on the Four Axioms of Fate and prediction can be found here

References

  1. Post:Predicting_in_3.0_-_01/23/2013_-_20:36
  2. Post:Sphere_of_influence_and_prediction_-_11/28/2012_-_14:42
  3. Post:Questions_on_tools_in_Future_is_Now_-_11/04/2013_-_15:50
  4. Re:_The_positive_awesome_things_from_HE_this_year_-_11/13/2014_-_8:15

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