Post:Box Difficulty For Mid to High Level Critters - 08/29/2012 - 11:36

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Box Difficulty For Mid to High Level Critters · on 08/29/2012 11:36 PM CDT 1481
Over the last few days I've checked pretty much all the critter boxes that Kaxis is able to get accurate numbers on. It's everything starting from Dragon Priest Intercessors down to Orc Reivers. Someone else will have to do the next section of critters since none of the people I can use have box skills in that range. I really should have done this a couple years ago when Kaxis's skills were much lower. Would have been able to get to a few more critters. To approximate this I disadvantaged Kaxis as much as possible: full armor, no khri, wilderness, base bonus, etc on the theory this would slide him down the effectiveness scale a bit.

I stopped his testing roughly around the level of where Elanthipedia says critters start at 300 ranks in skill levels. By coincidence this is where critters started dropping below 2000 on box scores, which is where statistical accuracy begins becoming an issue. To drop below 2000 means you're starting to pick up some minimum (1) level results, and there's no way to know if it truly is a 1 score or if it would go below 1 to negative except that the scaling won't let it. So I included the few I did below 2000, and being at the top of the lower chart they should be okay.

The method used to calculate boxes was this: when a box is disarm IDed a bunch of times, it doesn't give certain results. It gives a cluster result centered on where the certain result should be. This means you need to disarm ID a bunch of times and then average in order to get a represenation. I disarm IDed each box 100 times. With Kaxis's stats and skills I found this to give a possible error of less than .33% or so.

Boxes from the same critter aren't all created equal. Some are harder or easier than others. Ideally a 100 box sample from a critter would be perfect, but that would mean me not doing the project since I do want to get back to training eventually. I settled for a 10 box sample from each critter, which at least makes the math easy, not that Excel cares about that. This gave me 1000 data points to use per critter.

There are 17 difficulty level messages you can receive when disarm IDing a box. These were numbered from easiest to hardest. When I would disarm ID a box, whatever level it registered was recorded as a numerical value. Each of the ten boxes were done 100 times and added together to give a final total score for that critter type. So the higher the scores per disarm ID, the higher the total score at the end. This procedure is nearly identical as was done with crossbow hits several years ago. It has been also done with bows and arrows by other players in the past.

The idea for doing this was to improve the Locksmith Union listing. I don't like the way the list is set up now with levels. It's better to just have an accurate ranking order of critters and just say the highest you can do is, for example, Sky Giants. Someone told me just today that the chart levels make it convenient, but I responded that it doesn't do that at all. At some point every method requires a chart to reference. Rather than impose artifical and arbitrary level divisions, just have the correct order of critters and say I can do every thing below this one but not above. Someone else said maybe add more levels to fine tune it. I said that's what I'm doing, except that I'm taking it to the point that each critter represents its own unique level. The Locksmith Unionn can handle their business any way they wish, I'm just providing the information.

Problem Critters

Unless there's some compelling reason not to, Vile Plague Wraiths, Black Goblins, and DP Sentinels need their drop rate increased. I was in Black Goblins 1 1/2 hours before I got ten boxes. Vile Plague Wraiths were 2 hours. Sentinels were nearly 3 hours. Assassins were very quick.

Gargantuan Bone Golems and Vaporous Blood Wraiths meant going into the Abyss. I'd never been in there before. That puzzle was frustrating, and when I got in the first time I thought I would just walk into the hunting ground I needed. Found out I needed to actually do the Cleric Infusion quest, part of it anyway, to get where I needed to go. So I had to come out and start over. I added a note to elanthipedia about these critters in case anyone is interested. One thing for sure: you won't have to worry about lack of hunting rooms! Especially for Gargantuan Bone Golems and Vaporous Blood Wraiths, which are in the black Pit and really aren't in what one would normally think of as a hunting ground. Wraiths do drop boxes, something that wasn't known for sure on elanthipedia, and have a Snaer Hafwa style spirit attack, and I changed those entries as well.

Orc Clan-Chiefs were not practical to do since they spawn so rarely. They're probably not far above Orc Raiders, my guess would be likely somewhere around Dragon Priest Juggernaut level at most, possibly a bit lower.

Trekhalos are supposed to have boxes, yet in the 2+ hours I hunted there I got my full sample of Hunter boxes without ever getting the first Trekhalo box. I killed large numbers of each. Unless I got very unlucky it looks like Trekhalo box dropping is broken.

Didn't go to Hara'jaal, which I doubt many box hunters do either, so bypassed Corsairs and Telga Moradu, which I'm not sure are even active right now. All other critters I got from Elanthipedia's listing were all too low to check.

Here's the listing from the hardest, Dragon Priest Intercessors, no surprise there, in order to the lowest:

Dragon Priest Intercessor 9762
Dragon Priest Assassin 8812
Misenseor Resuscitant 4496
Sinister Maelshyvean Hierophant 4239
Zombie Head-splitter 4080
Black Goblin 3522
Ashu Hhinvi 3396
S'sugi Malchata 3321
Zombie Mauler 3131
Sky Giant 3119
Vile Plague Wraith 2984
Zombie Stomper 2771
Maelshyvean Cinder Beast 2756
Adan'f Spirit Dancer 2703
Maelshyvean Shadow Beast 2585
Mountain Giant 2580
Isundjen Conjurer 2492
Armored Shalswar 2250
Dragon Priest Juggernaut 2226
Dragon Priest Zealot 2177
Dragon Priest Purifier 2163
Orc Raider (2nd Floor) 2159
Black Marble Gargoyle 2156
Dragon Priest Crone 2131
Dragon Priest Sentinel 2088
Orc Raider (1st Floor) 2084
Misshapen Germish'din 2077
Kra'hei 2071
Wir Dinego 2054
Lun'Shele Hunter 2025

And here's the ones below 2000:

Gargantuan Bone Golem 1987
Vaporous Blood Wraith 1769
Orc Reiver 1766

It is important to remember the total score numbers are specific to Kaxis and his stats and skills. And when his skills change these numbers will no longer be relevent to him either. If you look at the post a few previous where I posted only four critters from long ago, you'll see how his number results have shifted.

So anyone with different stats/skills would get a different looking set of numbers. The gap pattern should be the same, but the actual numbers would be different. I included them only to show how close together some critters are and the gaps between others. In particular note the huge jump from Resuscitants to Assassins. But they're in no way meant to be used as any kind of universal scaling. Having said that, it remains possible to perhaps devise some kind of multiplier to correlate data from two different investigators, but leaving that thinking for now until there is a second set of numbers to examine.

Anyone who wants to continue this method on down to the critters below these can do it this way. It would be best to first collect numbers on as many critters below mine as you wish to do so that they're in proper order. Then do the lowest one on my list to see if that tells you where the top of your list seams into the bottom of mine. If my lowest critter is still higher than your highest critter, then that's a cinch! Your list picks up where mine leaves off and you need do nothing more. Any new critter that is added one day can be found where to be placed with only a little trial and error.

For reference so we're all on the same page here is the scaling I used:

1 An aged grandmother could defeat this trap in her sleep.
2 This trap is a laughable matter, you could do it blindfolded!
3 The trap is a trivially constructed gadget which you can take down any time.
4 will be a simple matter for you to disarm.
5 should not take long with your skills.
6 You think this trap is precisely at your skill level.
7 with only minor troubles.
8 The trap has the edge on you, but you've got a good shot at disarming
9 You have some chance of being able to disarm
10 The odds are against you, but with persistence you believe you could disarm
11 would be a longshot.
12 You have an amazingly minimal chance at disarming
13 You really don't have any chance at disarming
14 Prayer would be a good start for any attempt of yours at disarming
15 You could just jump off a cliff and save yourself the frustration of attempting
16 You probably have the same shot as a snowball does crossing the desert.
17 A pitiful snowball encased in the Flames of Ushnish would fare better than you.

So the maximum score a box could have using this system is 17000. Minimum would be 1000.

Yes, I scripted this to avoid losing my mind.

And for even more fun here's the remaining critters from the list I got off Elanthipedia, in descending order:

Icy Blue Ghast
Red-Gold Scaled Atik'et (2)
Orc Bandit
Greater Sluagh
Velakan Slaver
Elba Darvager
Graverobber (2)
Ghoul Raven
Zombie Nomad
Red-bristled Gremlin
Adan'f Blood Warrior
Adan'f Shadow Mage
Yellow Bristled Gremlin
Spectral Pirate
Transparent Shylvic
Forest Geni
Ur Hhrki'izh (2)
Red-Gold Scaled Atik'et (1)
Faenrae Stalker
Shadow Master
Giant Blight Ogre
Frail Darkened Silhouette
Cave Troll
Skeletal Sailor
Dark Sprite
Lanky Grey Lach
Quartz Gargoyle
Grey Clay Archer
Orc Scout
Ur Hhrki'izh (1)
Grey Clay Mage
Scavenger Troll
Lithe Blight Ogre
Sickly Blightwater Nyad
Pale Grey Death Spirit
Large Lachmate
Grey Clay Soldier
Cadaverous Yeehar
Rotting Deadwood Dryad
River Sprite
Stumpy Blight Ogre
Lesser Sluagh (3)
Snow Goblin (3)
Alley Thug
Dark Spirit
Snow Goblin (2)
Kra'hei Hatchling
Retch Fiend
Scout Ogre
Golden Scaled Atik'et
Swamp Troll (1)
Snow Goblin (1)
Crypt Fiend
Lesser Sluagh (2)
Young Ogre
Granite Gargoyle
Bawdy Swain
Pugnacious Pinchfist
Gypsy Marauder
Miserly Moneygrubber
Graverobber (1)
Shifty-eyed Skinflint
Troublesome Tightwad
Wood Troll (2)
Moss Mey
Skeletal Kobold Headhunter
Young Cave Troll
Zombie Kobold Headhunter
Skeletal Kobold Savage
Zombie Kobold Savage
Fire Sprite
Fire Maiden
Writhing Maiden's Tress
Lesser Sluagh (1)
Dark Fiend
Rock Troll (1)
Dragon Priest Fanatic
Malodorous Bucca
Sand Sprite
Faenrae Reaver
Revenant Zombie
Revenant Conscript
S'lai Scout
Wood Troll (1)
Water Sprite
Blood Dryad
Blood Nyad
Goblin Shaman
Scavenger Goblin
Field Goblin
Wildland Goblin
Crazed Madman
Forager Goblin
Lesser Skeleton
Zombie Goblin
Sleazy Lout


This message was originally posted in Abilities, Skills and Magic \ Survival Skills - Economic, by URUTU on the forums.