Prediction
- See here for the Barbarian meditation.
General Information
Predictions
A prediction simply applies a bonus or penalty to any skill. They are capped at 30% of the base skill, plus a flat modifier from the tool (See below). There is no known hard cap, but in practice much beyond ~130 ranks is at the whim of the random number generator, and much beyond 200 ranks has not been observed. Durations range from a few minutes to upwards of two hours.
A person can be under the influence of an unlimited number of predictions, but only one prediction per skill. Multiple predictions on the same skill will average out into one prediction (meaning small positive predictions can be useful to blunt a large negative prediction).
In all forms of divination the messages received accurately reflect the actual result.
Observations
The first step in making any prediction is to successfully OBSERVE a celestial body. Information on specific bodies, such as the skillsets they teach and the circle they are learned at can be found here on the Starchart.
While not all celestial bodies teach the same amount from an observation, the values are fairly close meaning bodies that touch multiple areas are almost always preferable. Furthermore the Sun and moons will always give at least a partial success through anything except total cloud cover. The timer on observations is random from 2-4 minutes.
While a prediction can be performed from a single observation, each further observation will fill your pool further (Which can be checked with PREDICT STATE). An observation that would add insight to otherwise filled pools will message as such and not start the observation timer. The amount of insight in your observation pool will dramatically influence the power and duration of any given prediction and increase the likelihood of the prediction being beneficial.
Tools
In place of Visions divination tools may be used once the ALIGN ability is learned at 4th circle from a book in Tiv's guildhall.
- Celestial Charts, favored by the Celestial Compact.
- Divination Bones, favored by the Nomads of the Arid Steppe.
- Ornate Mirror, favored by the Progeny of Tezirah.
- Sandstone Bowl, favored by the Prophets of G'Nar Peth.
- Sapphire Prism, favored by the Monks of the Crystal Hand.
- Tokka Cards, favored by the Followers of Fortune's Path.
All tools share some important traits. All must be INVOKEd to bond to the seer before the first use, all can be INVOKEd a second time to clear the bond (which will reset bond qualities but not physical qualities) and all may be ANALYZEd to evaluate their quality.
All tools can only be used with the ALIGN command, either set to a general skill set or a specific skill. If a specific skill is selected the prediction will suffer a roughly 25% penalty to power, however this applies before the 30% cap and not to the linear bonus from the tool - so it will only factor in with predictions done from a small number of observations or on very high ranked skills. Furthermore there is a roughly 10% penalty to power beyond this for use of a tool from a sect other then your own. Neither of these penalties influence duration, polarity, or accuracy.
Qualities
All tools have eleven qualities which can be viewed when you ANALYZE them. These can be split into four physical qualities, four bond qualities, one construction quality, and two age qualities. Physical qualities vary at the time of purchase/crafting and affect the frequency of their respective bond quality increasing. Bond qualities always start at the lowest level and affect the power of a prediction, the duration of a prediction, the chance of hitting your aligned skill, and the chance of matching your desired polarity. Bond qualities cannot be seen unless you have aligned your prophetic talent with the tool via INVOKE. The construction quality never changes, and determines how susceptible the physical qualities are to damage. Age qualities are purely cosmetic and track how many times the tool has been used as well as how old it is.
Bonding
With each use a tool may increase a bond quality with the frequency based on the current level of its respective physical quality. Also with each use a tool may decrease a physical quality with the frequency based on how well constructed the tool is. Tools will never break, regardless of how low the physical qualities reach. This will eventually result in a sort of equilibrium state where the physical qualities are so small that the chance for the bond levels to increase is so small as to be almost none. In addition to the physical quality, the chance of bonding increasing is influenced by being of the tool's related sect, having high astrology, having high Wisdom, and using a full prediction pool to predict. Spells such as Seer's Sense may help as well, though this is hard to verify. The most dramatic change in a tool will come from critical successes and fumbles, both of which have a 1 in 100 chance (verification needed) of occurring, and both influence all physical and bond traits at once to a larger degree then a normal bonding message, and will undo each other. The one exception to this is that individual bond qualities become immune to critical fumbles once capped in order to prevent the best tools from eventually decaying to nothing in the long term.[1]
Due to the way the math works out this usually results in bond qualities increasing to an equilibrium level that is primarily determined by the construction stat, but also affected by the starting physical qualities as well as your skills, stats, and how often you use full prediction pools. While it is technically possible to cap an averagely constructed tool, it would take a lot of time and extreme amounts of luck. The better the construction of the tool the much more likely it is to be able to cap it. The single most effective thing you can do to increase your chances of this, aside from gaining more skill and stats, is to always use a full prediction pool when predicting.
Tools may be reINVOKEd in order to erase your bond with them, but this will also reset their bond qualities back to the lowest point.
Syntax
PREDICT is a Moon Mage exclusive verb which allows your character to predict the future for various ends.
USAGE:
The major uses of PREDICT require that you first make celestial observations. This is done by OBSERVE <object> (for PREDICT FUTURE) or STUDY SKY (for PREDICT EVENT) before you use the PREDICT command. You may optionally use the observational commands multiple times to build up a powerful prediction.
Observation Based:
PREDICT EVENT <person> - Gives the target a vision about current events on Elanthia. <person> is optional and will target yourself if not used. This command requires special training from your fellow Moon Mages before it can be used.
PREDICT FUTURE <person> <skillset> - Gives the target a cryptic vision about his immediate future, which may effectively amplify or curse one of his skills. Valid options for <skillset> are Defense, Lore, Magic, Offense and Survival.
General Use:
PREDICT ANALYZE <person> - Evaluates the target's aura to determine what kind of predictions are affecting him. <person> is optional and will target yourself if not used.
PREDICT STATE <skillset|event> - Evaluates how much you have learned toward performing an observation based prediction. Valid options are Defense, Event, Lore, Magic, Offense and Survival.
PREDICT WEATHER - Predicts upcoming changes in the weather. You must be outdoors to use this ability.
PREDICT <emote> <text> - Allows you to intone a passage of your choosing. You may seperate your text into multiple lines by using a semicolon (;).
Valid emotes (optional):
| /cheerfully | /coldly | /cryptically | /darkly |
| /dreamily | /drunkenly | /enigmatically | /happily |
| /harshly | /hauntingly | /hesitantly | /hollowly |
| /loudly | /mockingly | /morbidly | /mysteriously |
| /mystifyingly | /rudely | /softly | /teasingly |
| /vaguely | /venomously | /warmly | /wonderingly |
Events
- Requires 10th circle. Learned by having an event predicted on you by another Moon Mage with this ability.
- Predicting on other guilds will sometimes result in visions related to their guilds that would otherwise be unavailable.
- The event pool fills drastically faster at night.
- The chance of a successful prediction is related to how full the pool is, but since there is no round time for a failed attempt the command can be spammed until a prediction is successful.
- A decent source of astrology experience, both from the studies and the prediction itself.
You focus inwardly searching for insight into your future. As your vision clears you see an Elf lecturing a group of students, gesticulating wildly at a variety of star charts and divination tools. A cracked and bloodied sandstone bowl lies next to an unconscious and bleeding student. A fierce growl comes from the east, followed by the sound of breaking glass and a muffled cry.
Future
- The most basic way to perform a skill modifying prediction, and the only option without use of ALIGN or a tool.
- See Visions for full mechanics.
- A very good source of astrology experience, also teaches some scholarship and perception.
Analyze
- Attempts to view the active predictions on the target. Contests Astrology and Power Perception vs target's circle, strength and number of predictions.
- Aura Sight is useful in this skill since it boosts the relevant skills.
- Roundtime generally increased with the number of predictions, but fairly random.
- Inaccuracy only exists without power/duration readings and will decrease with skill but almost always remain to some degree. This can actually be useful through multiple uses to get a general sense of where the prediction lies within the range.
- Detects boosts from a Celestial Jewelry enchantment as if they were a prediction.
- A very good source of astrology experience and a decent source of power perception experience. Will only teach if at least one prediction is active, and experience is constant beyond that. The timer is about 100 seconds.
You immediately will your consciousness deep into the flows of fate. A few images materialize before your mind's eye and you pick out the following:
A translucent aquamarine spellbook that resolves into a ball of flame. It pops out of existence the moment you notice it. An Elothean man stands immediately before you. Something about him seems strangely familiar.
Skill
- Based on effective skill, not level of success. Controls the room message.
| First Person | Third Person |
|---|---|
| Your masterful awareness brings the webs of fate to life as a dynamic overlay on reality. | (no message) |
| You immediately will your consciousness deep into the flows of fate. | Mage becomes very still, eyes unfocused. |
| The world around you fades from sight as you turn your gaze inward. | Mage becomes very still, eyes unfocused. |
| You close your eyes, mentally seeking the threads of fate. | Mage closes her eyes and grows still. |
| You close your eyes, struggling to catch a glimpse of foresight. | Mage closes his eyes and grows still. |
Number
- Based on number of active predictions (Max of 10 viewable), not level of success.
A few images materialize before your mind's eye and you pick out the following:
A handful of images flutter in and out of view and you pick out the following:
Many images flash rapidly before your mind's eye and you are able to identify the following:
A swarm of images flood your mind's eye, but you manage to pick out the following:
Waves of sensory information bombard your inner sight and you struggle to remain focused! You manage to pick out the following images:
Power
- Indicates power of prediction. Requires first level of success.
| Substantiality | Bonus |
|---|---|
| Translucent | >=0 |
| Flickering | >30 |
| Quivering | >60 |
| Solid | >90 |
| Undulating | >120 |
| Vivid | >150 |
| Luminous | >150 |
Polarity
- Indicates polarity of prediction. Requires first level of success.
Good:
- Aquamarine
- Azure
- Cerulean
- Sapphire
- Sky blue
Neutral (Failed check):
- Grey
- Pale
- White
Bad:
- Crimson
- Fiery
- Molten
- Ruby
- Scarlet
Object
- Indicates skillset of prediction. Requires first level of success.
Success:
- Moonblade: Offense
- Shield: Defense
- Spellbook: Magic
- Tome: Lore
- Tree: Survival
Failure:
- Amorphous blob
- Amorphous force
- Amorphous shape
Duration
- Indicates remaining length of prediction. Requires first level of success.
| Duration | Minutes |
|---|---|
| It pops out of existence the moment you notice it | <15 |
| It seems to vanish almost immediately | <30 |
| It quickly dissipates | <45 |
| It shimmers and fades from view | <60 |
| It disperses slowly | <75 |
| It hangs in the air a moment before fading from sight | <90 |
| It lingers in your mind long after the form has finally scattered. | >90 |
Skill
- Indicates exact skill of prediction. Requires second level of success.
- See Divination Bones for a full list of messages. Most are the same if not very similar. Only a few are different.
Source
- Indicates the source of the prediction.
- Third level of success will indicate the race:
An Elven woman stands in the background, watching.
- Fourth level of success will grant the name (strangely familiar indicates your own prediction):
An Elven woman stands immediately before you. You recognize the figure as Caelumia.
- This can also indicate the source as a Celestial Jewelry enchantment, and it's relative power:
A pair of stars glimmer overhead.
A small constellation shines overhead.
A brilliant array of stars gleams overhead.
State
- Measures how full a prediction pool is.
| % | Understanding | Min Power | Max Power | Min Duration | Max Duration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | No | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 1-11 | Feeble | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 12-22 | Weak | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 23-33 | Fledgling | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 34-44 | Modest | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 45-55 | Decent | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 56-66 | Significant | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 67-77 | Potent | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 78-88 | Insightful | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 89-99 | Powerful | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 100 | Complete | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Scale is assumed to be linear - only the first and last points are certain and there is no reasonable way to discover a non-linearity.
Weather
- Requires the mage to be under the open skies.
- With sufficent skill the mage will be able to predict further into the future and with an increasing degree of certainty. Each line represents roughly 10 minutes into the future.
- Can be performed in the astral plane to get a general idea of how the microcosm is changing.
- Teaches a small amount of astrology, useful at low levels of skill.
You gaze at the heavens, taking careful note of the current weather. You sense the weather will progress as follows:
You predict that light rains are on the way.
After that, light rains are on the way.
After that, light rains are on the way.
After that, the sky will be overcast.
After that, the sky will be overcast.
After that, the skies will be mostly cloudy.
After that, the skies will be mostly cloudy.
After that, the skies will be partly cloudy.
After that, the skies will be mostly cloudy.
After that, the sky will be overcast.
Roundtime: 5 seconds.
Grandfather
- Syntax is Predict Grandfather Confirm.
- Sets your Astrology skill to circle*2 (this is less then the circle requirement generally and does not produce TDPs).
- Only relevant if your Moon Mage predates the Astrology skill
- Does not exist in The Fallen.
Observations
- Based on scholarship, perception, and astrology.
- Attempts that are not under full cloud cover to observe the Sun or any of the moons will always teach at least some.
- Made easier through use of Clear Vision, Aura Sight and a Telescope.
- Piercing Gaze and Telescopes will help reduce cloud cover.
- Not all observations are equal, but they're fairly close so if you can successfully observe it's not worth obsessing over squeezing out every last drop of bonus.
- Some objects (And all planets) require a telescope to observe at all.
- The best telescopes are stationary in guildhalls, Kssarh's telescope at One West is the best in Elanthia.
- Star charts includes a list of what areas each object teaches and the circles they are learned at.
- To help resolve parser issues try "Elanthian Sun" and "Observe object in sky". Also destroy all sunstones and moonstones in the most sadistic method available.
Thanatology
When a Moon Mage ALIGNs to the Thanatology skill, they receive the following vision:
- Pain! A concept erupts from the back of your mind, cold and crushing. For a few, sharp moments you experience The End -- the death of stars and the deconstruction of fate as a metaphysical force.
- The death of the universe orbits... something. Some force or some entity. Something you cannot see; that you have an unconscious need not to.
- It sees you.
This also taints the Moon Mage with Necromantic taint, similar to what a Necromancer experiences during the middle stages of Divine Outrage.
If it instead aligns to the empathy skill please make a BUG report, as this is a reoccuring issue that needs to be remedied.