User:Mozzik/Sandbox

General Information

Predictions

A prediction simply applies a bonus or penalty to any skill. They are capped at 30% of the base skill, plus a flat modifier from the tool (See below). There is no known hard cap, but in practice much beyond ~130 ranks is at the whim of the random number generator, and much beyond 200 ranks has not been observed. Durations range from a few minutes to upwards of two hours.

A person can be under the influence of an unlimited number of predictions, but only one prediction per skill. Multiple predictions on the same skill will average out into one prediction (meaning small positive predictions can be useful blunt out large negative ones).

In all forms of divination the messages received do not necessarily reflect the actual result, and can drift based on skill and random chance. The only exceptions are that if a specific skill is seen it will be correct, and the polarity of a prediction will be accurate (With the rare exception of a prediction on a very low skill with a significant tool modifier that pushes a positive prediction negative or the reverse.). This fact is currently under review due to the existence of PREDICT Analyze.

Observations

The first step in making any prediction is to successfully OBSERVE a celestial body. Information on specific bodies, such as the skillsets they teach and the circle they are learned at can be found here on the Starchart.

While not all celestial bodies teach the same amount from an observation, the values are fairly close meaning bodies that touch multiple areas are almost always preferable. Furthermore the Sun and moons will always give at least a partial success through anything except total cloud cover. The timer on observations is random from 2-4 minutes.

While a prediction can be performed from a single observation, each further observation will fill your pool further (Which can be checked with PREDICT STATE). An observation that would add insight to otherwise filled pools will message as such and not start the observation timer. The amount of insight in your observation pool will dramatically influence the power and duration of any given prediction and increase the likelihood of the prediction being beneficial.

Tools

• In place of Predict Future divination tools may be once the ALIGN ability is learned at 4th circle from a book in Tiv's guildhall.
• Celestial Charts, favored by the Celestial Compact.
• Divination Bones, favored by the Nomads of the Arid Steppe.
• Ornate Mirror, favored by the Progeny of Tezirah.
• Sandstone Bowl, favored by the Prophets of G'Nar Peth.
• Sapphire Prism, favored by the Monks of the Crystal Hand.
• Tokka Cards, favored by the Followers of Fortune's Path.

All tools share some important traits. All must be RUBbed to bond to the seer before the first use, all can be INVOKEd to clear the bond (which will reset bond qualities but not physical qualities) and all may be LOOKed at to evaluate their quality.

All tools can only be used with the ALIGN command learned at 4th circle, either set to a general skill set or a specific skill. If a specific skill is selected the prediction will suffer a roughly 25% penalty to power, however this applies before the 30% cap and not to the linear bonus from the tool - so it will only factor in with predictions done from a small number of observations or on very high ranked skills. Furthermore there is a roughly 10% penalty to power beyond this for use of a tool from a sect other then your own. Neither of these penalties influence duration, polarity, or accuracy.

Bonding

All tools have eight qualities, though they are not always visible when LOOKed at. These can be split into physical qualities, bond qualities, and age. Physical qualities vary at the time of purchase/crafting and apply a linear modifier to the size of bonus, the duration, the chance of hitting the correct skill and the chance of the prediction being positive. Bond qualities modify the chance of seeing the proper output for the power, duration and skill affected. Age tracks how many times the tool has been used and influences the chance of breakage.

With each use a tool may increase or decrease it's quality, with the frequency and messages varying with tool to tool. Some treat bond and physical qualities differently, others do not. In general being of the proper sect and having high astrology (And perhaps other skills) will increase the odds of bonding being beneficial. Spells such as Aura Sight and Seer's Sense may help as well, though this is hard to verify. The most dramatic change in a tool will come from critical successes and fumbles, both of which have a 1 in 100 chance of occurring, and both influence all physical traits at once to a larger degree then a normal bonding message, and will undo each other.

Due to the way the math works out this usually results in bond qualities deviating very slightly from their start values (And can be reset with INVOKE if they start to drift too negative) while physical qualities change faster due to runs in luck with crits and fumbles that wash out the other factors. This makes tool bonding very random and streaky.