User:Diarik/Trader Proposal

The essential idea of the Trader is someone who is able to manipulate the flow of money for the sake of personal profit. However, this concept has been sorely unpronounced and untouched. In terms of game design theory, I am a firm believer that a guild is improved by creating abilities through which a player finds himself forced to make a meaningful choice in their playstyle, thus producing situations in which they have the opportunity to think about the way they roleplay their characters. (See Guild Analysis)

One excellent, and existing, choice has been contract versus marketplace. Traders currently have the choice to either profit by selling goods or by ferrying them. While this is certainly good, it can clearly be made better, especially as in both cases skill becomes negligible and pointless except for blind circling for its own sake.

The below is a proposal, initially entitled the Trader Entrepreneurship Proposal, that presents a number of suggestions on how to improve the play of the Trader guild.

Credit or Credibility: The Health of an Economic Agent

NOTE: The terms "credit" and "credibility" do not mean the same things. However, they can be used interchangeably in many cases in the below document. The distinction will be made clear in the below section on Banking/Credibility.

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Every Trader has one line of credit per province. This line is opened by speaking to a commerce minister in the province you wish to open. A Trader's ledger should be given an additional page in order to indicate the state of their credit in each province.

Credit does not leak into other provinces; other than exceptional scenarios, such as Trader events, extreme abuse, and so on, the separate banks give a Trader the benefit of the doubt when they bring ruin in another province.

The size of your credit grows linearithmically by circle. Starting at first circle, you have a plat's worth of credit. At second circle, you'll have 2 plats. You reach 10 plats by 6th circle, 20 by 10th, 170 by 50th, 400 by 100th. The formula for this is 2n*log(n), where n is your circle. Additionally, it might be considered to use Charisma as an additional factor: add half of one's charisma to the size of your credit.

While there appears to be abuse potential here, it is important to note that credit is not usable with players. Thus, you cannot roll thousands of 1st circle Traders and gain a plat per character. The actual usage of credit will be discussed below: this is merely the basic concept that serves as a foundation.

Of Payments and Finances

The way credit works, abstractly speaking, is that some charge is made to your account on behalf of the credit issuer (the Guild, in this case). This develops a charge on your account, which must be paid back from your own stores within a certain time period.

This time period is 1 Elanthian Month, or 10 Earth days. This debt may be repaid sooner than this, of course, with any commerce minister in the relevant province.

Failure to make this payment does two things. First, it incurs interest, which makes it more difficult to complete the payment. Second, it hurts your credibility, which, again, will be explained later.

Financial Tragedy: Bankruptcy as "Death"

If one's line of credit is their health, then a number of interesting analogies may be drawn. While the analogy is imperfect (you hardly use your vitality as a weapon!), it serves as a useful illustration.

Interest

When you fail to pay back the charges you have incurred, an additional charge is applied as interest. This is the equivalent of having a bleeder. The interest should be about 5% of the unpaid balance.

Overdraft

Attempting to draw from your credit more than you have available. This is the equivalent of being in shock and dying. You are not trounced yet, of course, but unless you have some solid funds, you're in trouble.

Bankruptcy

If you overdraw your credit and are subsequently unable (or do not) pay it back, you are forced to become bankrupt. This is the equivalent of death.

In Elanthia, bankruptcy means that you are deprived of your credit (and thus your ability to use all the systems below) for 2 Elanthian Andaen, or 2 Earth days. In order to strength the analogy between death and bankruptcy, your field experience in Trading is additionally emptied. The IC justification for this event is psychological trauma: the revelation that your credit and relationship with the guild and market have suddenly bottomed out is so painful to you, as a Trader, that you forget your recent understanding of Trading. The 2 andaen is considered a mix between this trauma and a lack of faith by the Guild.

Because credit does not leak across provinces, this justification does fracture slightly in that it _is_ possible to become bankrupt in, for example, Ilithi and move to Qi Reshalia and continue using the system. It is not beyond justification, however, as the enterprising Trader should pick themselves back up despite failure.

I leave it to the developer's discretion whether this timer will count down while the Trader is logged out. I see no especial reason to go either way.

Third, each of the above scenarios hurts your credibility (or in terms more familiar to the people of Earth: your credit rating) in successively greater amounts.

Business as War: The Battleground of Trade

Pacing a caravan is, almost certainly, the single most boring thing a person can do in Elanthia. Standing around dumbly is arguably more exciting. "Business as War" is an attempt to merge the relative enjoyability and engagement of DR combat with Trading.

The City as a Hunting Ground

Instead of developing new rooms for "trading areas", it would be more efficient, not to mention effective, to leverage existing cities. This permits the interesting side effect of synching city/town expansion to the expansion of hunting areas.

In Elanthia, we have two forms of municipality. We have the major cities: Crossing, Riverhaven, Shard, Ratha, Hibarnhvidar. And we also have minor cities and townships. The distinction with which I draw this is by the existence of districts, or neighborhoods: subsections of a city that differentiate itself from other parts.

The reason I mention this is because I want to point out that cities should be ideal for young traders as well as older ones. The absolute biggest and hardest deals are in the city, but so are the easiest and simplest. In the middle, of course, are the towns and smaller cities.

I envision difficulty rising like so:

• Easiest: Major city
• Easy: Towns
• Hard: Minor city
• Hardest: Major city

This does not, of course, preclude the idea that specialized areas may be created.

Business Tactics: Driving a Hard Bargain

So, how would you train Trading?

First, you must deal with shop owners. You need to buy a bulk load of wares (just "wares" from now on) from some shop owner. Second, you must deal with customers. You take these wares and sell them to either NPC customers or other shop owners. This is not unlike caravan leading, except that you have full discretion on what to buy and who to ship it to, and from such a barter, make experience and profit. It is also similar to commodity pits, in that you may be gambling what is necessary.

However, commodity pits are well-known to be fickle and difficult. Instead, it would be more effective to pit Trader charm against Customer skepticism. The price for which you acquire your wares are haggled through a series of speculative devaluations, whereas the price for which you sell it is achieved through overvaluation. As the commerce minister likes to say, "Therein lies profit."

Examples of possible new SPECULATE abilities would be pondering on the prices available from other merchants, contemplating the pitiful state of the wares, and so on, while currently available abilities already increase its value in the eyes of the customer (though another to consider possible other buyers may be useful). Like combat commands, the trick is to unbalance your opponent and increase your own stability through effective combinations. You use a combination of your Trading and Appraisal skill to overwhelm the customer's Appraisal and fool them into buying what you have to sell.

Customer or Vendor NPCs

NOTE: This section, and the two Example sections below are incomplete, incoherent, and uncertain. They were my attempt at developing a set of verbs and actions by which the system could be highly detailed, rather than just conceptual-level musings.

Unfortunately, I appear to have run out of creativity, and given the direction of my recent thoughts, I will not likely be returning to this.

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NPCs have a number of "statistics" and skills, just as you do. They have business sense, knowledge of quality, and experience to back it up. As such, it is entirely possible for a shopkeeper to ambush you and persuade you to buy their wares without any involvement at all. This may be likened to combat, where you walk into a hunting area and, without warning, seordmaors will throw lightning bolts your way.

Charisma, Discipline, Intelligence, and Wisdom are the primary stats involved in making a sale. Trading and Appraisal are key skills. Thus, in appraising a customer or vendor, you may see:

>appraise Milgrym
You are certain that Milgrym is in a good mood and open to business talks.
You are certain that he is definitely less charismatic than you are.
You are certain that he is definitely less unreadable than you are.
You are certain that he is definitely wiser than you are.
Taking stock of his business acumen, you are certain that Milgrym is an experienced trader.
Taking stock of his knowledge of products, you are certain that Milgrym knows what he's talking about.

Obviously, I've stolen this from combat appraisal. While most of the lines are fairly clear ("unreadable" refers to Discipline), the first line bears some elaboration as a segue into the next topic. How open Milgrym is refers to his Interest Level.

Interest Level is a score that refers to the position of the buyer. The more interested the buyer is, the more likely it is that they'll take whatever price is named.

Example: Purchasing Wares

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Central Banking: The Pasttime of Investment

At 50th circle, Traders should be allowed to attempt to enter the banking system. Banks are currently located in 13 cities, most of which have their own complement of shops. (Those that do not should not be entered into this system.)

I'm first going to talk about getting into the system before I start talking about actually leveraging it.

There are three levels of banker: Associate Banker, Banker, and Bank Manager. There may be only one Bank Manager per bank, 5 Bankers, and 20 Associate Bankers. This creates a scarcity by which power may be granted while providing some possibility of entering and advancing in the system.

Credibility

First, a would-be banker must worry about credibility. Credibility, like credit, does not carry over into other provinces. A trader's credibility begins as a score determined by the timeliness with which they paid their dues. However, hitting the streets as a salesman does not earn you high credibility; it makes an impact, but it is not large. The real way to earn credibility is through doing a series of deals with Trader Guild NPCs, most notably the guildleaders and commerce ministers.

You should never have an exact estimate of your provincial credibility. While the precise scale may vary from 0 to 1000, there would only be perhaps 4 or 5 actual messagings for an indicator. Perhaps 0-100, 100-300, 300-600, 600-900, 900-1000. However, differences of, say, 50 points would be significant. Furthermore, credibility should decay very rapidly without constantly being boosted. It is easier to boost it as a banker than as a potential banker, so there is little reason to take part in the system unless you are intending to join it.

Raising one's credibility, outside of the banking system, is done chiefly through determining which NPC is the best to bribe. That determination is by interacting with them, similar to the Business as War system above, which uses a combination of Trading and Appraisal to understand how amenable they are to a bribe. (We can assume, here, that all relevant NPCs will have the same positive impact on your credibility when bribed.) It is also possible for an older Trader to endorse you by determining this for you and giving you the funds to make the bribe. It is also possible to raise credibility through the guildleader by accepting a special contract (perhaps a smuggling run).

It is also possible to leverage your pristine record of repaying credit on time and in excessive amounts to indicate your superior capabilities with large amounts of coin.

Distinguishing Credibility from Credit

Credibility is the strength of one's reputation as a manager of money and returner of investments. To be credible in the financial world, you must lay your future on the line and hope that you are right.

Credit is similar to credibility in that they are both kinds of health. However, credit is far closer as an analogy to vitality, whereas credibility can be likened to systems such as devotion, soul, or reputation.

Application

Second, a would-be banker must worry about application. Each level of banking first requires a minimum credibility. However, if all spots are filled, an applicant must displace another banker. This is done primarily by undermining a banker's credibility.

You see, in the banking system, credibility is a commodity just as it is in the marketplace. It can be speculated upon, and thus reinforced or belittled. This is generally anonymous, but information about who is affecting your credibility may be discovered through discreet bribes for information or by asking a Thief to perform espionage. Both methods are useful additionally for widdling away someone's credibility.

This does create an atmosphere of politics, with the potential in-fighting and assassination plots that could arise. However, it is justified as a means to create two forces: one, to spread and distribute high circle Traders more evenly across the realms; and two, to create a scarcity in which it is possible to justify the income that bankers enjoy.

Actual Banking: Investment

So, what the heck does a banker actually DO? Well, associate bankers and bankers essentially do one thing: they invest money. The goal is to make money for the bank, and take a little extra for themselves at the same time (you know, that profit thing). In order to do this, bankers receive a second line of credit provided strictly for their investments. (The first line is reserved for their salesmanship.)

But, what's an investment? Essentially, you go around to NPCs and seed them with capital. The amount that you seed them with is limited by your Trading skill, and whether or not it's a good idea is determined by a skill check of Appraisal versus their Charisma. Or their Trading. The NPCs will primarily be shop owners, of course, but it's conceivable that the same customer critters can be used, based on how they end up being coded.

Now we take a departure from realism. Since there is no permanent effect due to your investment, then your Trading and Appraisal experience and your return should come back immediately.

Of course, no matter how much you borrow to make your investment, you have to pay it all back, plus interest. While paying the interest itself would raise your credibility, paying an additional bonus on top of it (in other words, cutting into your profit) raises it even more. Thus, your profit is your discretion in whether you use it to aspire higher faster, or take your rise in corporate Elanthia slow and steady.

The difference between a Banker and an Associate Banker is the degree to which you're allowed to use the bank's funds to seed your investments. An associate banker might have a cap of 5% of the bank's store, while a banker might have a 10%. A bank manager might have 20% available.

Naturally, if a number of bankers make pitiful investments all the time, they may begin to have less money available in the bank than needs to be withdrawn by a player. While this really should never happen, it can either be hacked around by giving a bank an infinite store to withdraw from (but not to invest from), or player accounts should begin to have less money in them. A banker's credibility will quickly plummet and his own financial stores will be plundered if such a scenario occurs in order to restore the bank's store.

Oh, and by the way, this system also makes it possible for a player account to gain interest from depositing in a bank. This reward is the flip-side of the risk of permitting bankers to use player monies in investments: it is only possible if the bank can in fact lose all its funds.

If it is chosen to instead utilize the infinite store scenario, then an initial investment store should be somewhat arbitrarily determined.

Actual Banking: Exchange Rates

There are two key functions of banks in Elanthia: to store money and to exchange foreign currency for local. While the above system of investment makes it possible for players to accrue interest, this is not a stated function.

A bank manager, in addition to standard investment, is capable of affecting both the exchange fee and the rate itself. This action requires the spending of a significant amount of credibility, but becomes permanent until another bank manager makes a change.

In general, it is expected that this ability will be used sparingly, since its impact is not that significant and its cost is high.

Stock Markets: Gambling on the Future

In every province, we have a major economic hub: Crossing, Riverhaven, Shard, Ratha, Hibarnhvidar. Currently, there exists a commodity market in Crossing, though the commodity markets of other provinces are... inaccessible to play. Instead, I would propose a stock market based on the above systems.

In the real world, the stock market is an interesting gamble. The idea is to buy stock in a company whose value will rise, and sell stock in any companies whose value will fall. However, it gets more convoluted because investment in a company through the purchase of stock is done in order to strength the company itself. Thus, a company is naturally likely to do better if you buy into it. Then again... it might not: it's still a gamble.

In Elanthia, shops take the place of companies. Stops are effectively static. There are no IPOs; I would recommend that a random selection of shops are simply chosen as publicly traded. A room should be created within each Trader Guild in order for traders to discuss and haggle the performance of particular shops.

Valuation of Stock

One simple way to determine the intial value of a store's stock is to sum up all the items it has for sale, multiply by some random factor between 0.80 and 1.20, and then shatter that into smaller portions. Any particular shop should have approximately 10,000 shares available for purchase, and a million shares in every province. I estimate that this would be sufficient for the amount of Traders who participate in the stock market.

Fluctuation in Stock Price

A stock's value would change not on abstract market vagueries, but on player action. While the typical purchases of adventurers provide one base measure, a more important measure would be based on younger Traders purchasing bulk wares from shopkeepers and selling them. The shopkeeper is thus motivated to sell as much as possible; failure to do so results in a drop in their stock price.

Conclusion: Future Directions

The implications of all the above systems is the ability to move Elanthian economics further away from static shopkeeper prices and, conceivably, static monster drops. But beyond vague gestures of a dynamic marketplace that involves monsters and players alike, my vision encounters a horizon and it's just beyond me to conceptualize what might be created, let alone design a system to account for it.

I began this document having reached an agreement with myself. The systems I have proposed all have the potential, though I made some attempt to limit it, make Traders even more filthy rich than they already are, and to do so with relatively little risk of the death and dismemberment which faces many other guilds. The agreement I made was that the Elanthian economy is broken beyond simple repair.

The economy is called a faucet/drain model. Faucets are monster drops, pawn shops, and Trader activities. The drains are purchases--whether of shop items, premium items, fest items, etc.--and various tolls and taxes. The problem, as the GMs are undoubtedly aware, is that the faucet is too big for the drains to keep up. Thus, you have money being hoarded, and thus you make it impossible to introduce new items for sale that can't be bought in the hundreds by players who have thousands of plats lying around just because. Thus the ships. And thus the closing of ship sales: the drain was simply too small.

The reason I bring this up, and the reason I wanted you to understand this, is that I think that there is the potential, in the systems I propose, to lay the groundwork for changing the way the economy works. I do not suggest it would be simple or direct, but creating a stronger sense of a real market may make it possible to move off the faucet/drain model, or to at least synch the inflow with the outflow much closer.

I don't know how. I don't know when. But, you know, hope springs eternal. Hope you enjoyed.