A History of the Guild, Part 1: A Justification for Group Predictions

The following article contains player-created lore or theories. It is not necessarily an accurate reflection of official game lore.

A History of the Guild, Part 1: A Justification for Group Predictions

"These are challenging times. No one denies this. But it means that each of us has a difficult decision. It all comes down to one simple question that will guide all future questions. How much are we willing to risk for a better future?

"Anyone who answers everything has surely not considered what they are risking. And anyone who says nothing is not worthy of the guild that has taught them so much. Like all things. It is a question of balance.

"As most of you know, we are looking to do a group prediction to gaze upon the past to learn the answers to questions that can help guide us. But we also seek to learn our true heritage and acquire a deeper understanding of the Plane of Probability.

"Today, we will not discuss the details about how we will achieve this nor will we give a detailed account of what we hope to learn.

"Today. I want each of you to know what you risk. I want you all to be able to leave us and this place. I want you all to be able to deny any knowledge of what we do when our guild leaders ask. Or if you must, I want you to be able to tell them our names and that you disagree with what we set out to do.

"So what do you risk?

"The answer to that question would be more obvious to us all if our guild thought it was important that you know your guild history. But they have not taught you. So today, let us begin by giving a brief account of your heritage.

"No one today knows who were the first to gaze upon the stars or into the Plane of Probability. But there was a time when the earliest seers began to hone their craft. And as the world was fragmented into chaos, tribal warlords sought the advice of learned seers so that battles could be won, and their people made safe.

"Soon it was realized that a fragmented world would yield nothing but eternal strife. So, the Empire of the Seven-Pointed Star was formed, to correct our mortal failings and to unite the world, using whatever force was deemed necessary.

"During this era, the Imperials first established libraries and academies such as Gaeleranendae, Izma Ru'ef, the famed Imperial Academy, and the College of Elemental Mages.

"The moon mage guild still did not exist, though. Formal institutions required Imperial backing, and many were still skeptical and fearful of those who could prophesy the future."

"But as fate would have it, Veila Tebaiya, a halfling not gifted in our arts, would set into motion the events that would result in the formation of our guild.

"Fascinated by Phelim in her youth and inspired by an unknown mystic, Veila constructed the Phelim Club in Throne City, which would one day evolve into the Celestial Compact.

"The club members spent hours and days hunches around tables in secrecy, discussing the constellations, moons, planets, and their orbits. But they had another interest that resides within the guild to this day. They were fascinated by power.

"They felt it was the destiny of those who can know what will be, to lead those who do not. It was the duty and responsibility of those gifted with foresight to lead the world into a better future.

"While most of Phelim's Compact held this view, they all differed in how to achieve this goal. The Compact found themselves separated into three division.

"Fiery-headed and full of flaming passion, those known as the Scions of Yavash were quick to make decisions and make them with little regret for their consequences. They acted in the radiant light of the red moon's glare and believed that they should rule in that light."

"Skulking in the shadows of the black moon, the Scions of Katamba opted to remain in the shadows of the throne. They safely pulled the strings of puppet lords, unseen by all."

"The Scions of Xibar were coldly logical and at the same time as fluid as the icy blue waters so resembling their master Xibar. This group believed in moderation. They felt that neither the Scions of Yavash nor the Scions of Katamba were right and neither were they wrong. For to them, dark was light and light was dark.

"At this juncture the organization changed its name to the Celestial Compact, in honor of the stars and moons which gave them their magic and foresight, and as a tribute to the three Assemblies, Katamba, Xibar, and Yavash.

"As time passed, more and more members of the Imperial elite saw the benefits to having among their retinue one who could touch the Plane of Probability and see the future. The Phelim Club continued to receive more people who wanted guidance in their learning.

"As the Compact's strength grew, so grew the number of its enemies, and it became increasingly clear that to survive, the Compact would need true sanctioning.

"And so the Grazhir Circle was formed within the Celestial Compact and they set into motion a plan to attain that sanctioning.

"The Grazhir Circle prophesied that Ponthilas of House Lucaid would become the next emperor. And so several of our skilled mages were sent to teach and influence the mind of Ponthilas with their magic, making him grow unstable over the next three years.

"Jares Braun, a member of the Assembly of Katamba, sent emissaries who quickly "cured" Ponthilas, as well as offering sage advice. They assured him that with their help, he would rule the Empire".

"The Compact's strategy was successful. Ponthilas took the throne and he surrounded himself with advisors from the Celestial Compact. Our seers guided him and helped him make good decision that benefited the whole Empire.

"But the plans of the Grazhir Circle were derailed. Many saw our actions as evil and feared that we were a corruptive influence that needed to be stopped.

"And so Saranell II, a dwarf who was the next in line to be emperor, told the S'Kra Mur that the Emperor intended to suppress their people. He made them fear what could happen but had not. Shortly after, the Emperor was assassinated and Saranell II was coronated.

"Saranell II was true to his word. He opposed the Celestial Compact and rejected our petition for official sanctioning. But the Assembly of Katamba, under Jares Braun, acted quickly and brought about the Magical Congress, which resulted in the Lunar Accord being signed and the Moon Mage Guild being officially sanctioned.

"A few tumultuous years later, several emperors came and went, and the Guild prospered. Our tendency to intervene in political affairs continued in the shadows, but eventually The Assembly of Yavash began to question the wisdom of ruling through others."

"They felt that the Assembly of Katamba was occupied by weak old men and women, who feared to take public action and were content at whispering advice into leaders who could ignore them and that the Assembly of Xibar was even worse as they refused to take sides on anything.

"The Assembly of Yavash led an insurrection that nearly overthrew the Emperor. In the end, however, they were defeated. Thousands died as rebellion swept the continent. All eleven Council Members save Ona Crowther were convicted and imprisoned for treason and for sponsoring rebellion.

"While these events were unfortunate, they did have two beneficial outcomes. They reinforced their belief in unity and it tempered their ambition with caution."

"As these two beliefs took firm root and became more integral and embedded into the heart and soul of the entire Guild, we were led to ask a simple question…

"If one seer opening a small gateway receives a small bit of knowledge, then could not a group of seers opening a large gateway receive a large amount of knowledge?

"All past known attempts at group predictions resulted in Shadow Creatures crossing through the window and entering the Plane of Abiding. The resulting deaths led Guildmaster Prime Taramaine Braun to seal this line of study, prohibiting its research.

"So let us take a moment to pause and reflect on all that has been said this night.

"Our ability to see into the Plane of Probability has led us into political intrigue that has killed thousands. Group predictions have resulted in planar invasions by creatures of unimaginable power, some of which can also predict and shape the future as well if not better than we do. Our own Guildmaster Prime has decreed that none should research further into the utility of group predictions. And many of us here, including myself, have argued against unnecessarily manipulating the Web of Fate.

"And yet now, I ask you if we are willing to use our powers, unite as one, and do a group prediction to gaze upon the past.

"You will be working against the decree of our guild. I promise you that without extreme caution, you will die. Every single action must be undertaken with extreme skill and pinpoint accuracy. And even with these precautions, you will likely die and we could cause a ripple through the Tapestry that has unforeseen consequences. "But yet, I still ask.

"There is so much we could better understand. There is so much in our history that is hidden not only from us, but from all that live on Elanthia.

"There is enormous risk and much to fear.

"But we should never allow our fear to paralyze ourselves from doing the good we can do.

"I do not know what each of you will decide. But it is time that we ask ourselves what we are willing to risk for a better future.

"Thank you for giving me your time, this night.

(https://elanthipedia.play.net/Celestial_Compact_(book))